I noticed that John Hogue indicates on his website that "readers of 'Predictions for 2011,' published in December of last year, are already aware that my oracle predicted a second great Recession could come in the first half of 2011." I did not purchase this book, so I can't vouch Hogue's claim--but I do know that he indicated on Dreamland last winter that a "cold depression" would be avoided. Often, prominent media predictors go back over earlier published predictions, and whitewash them after the fact. This may be what's happening here; can't say for sure.
As to what *I* think about the current economic turmoil, I think it's an opportunity. Sometimes it's best to catch a headcold now to avoid pneumonia later.
Economists and psychologists know that the intangible thing that we call money is essentially a self-created illusion. Market behavior is founded on a vested belief in the reality of "money." There is no greater illustration of the principle of reality-creation through shared beliefs, than the certitude that "money" is a tangible, objective reality. It is the most powerful and fundamental illusion that supports our consensus reality. So when belief in "money" begins to waver, market turmoil results. The assumptions that underlie the belief of "money" among competing groups of people fall out of synch; the process of renegotiating these shared assumptions causes turmoil. If you view our financial system from this perspective, much of the media blathering about the economic crisis comes off as very silly. We're solemnly lectured that "money" controls us, and we must obey it. In truth, however, we have a choice in what we believe and whom we obey.
Our present money-driven system has created massive distortions in our world that most Westerners ignore; while we complain about a few percentage drops in monetary value, over half the world lives hand-to-mouth, and even a slight rise in the price of commodities instantly causes the death of thousands. This imbalance between the super-rich and the destitute, and the competition between the two, is the engine that drives all of our wars, most of our diseases, and has condemned the West to a perpetual spiritual darkness. Until we acknowledge this, and fairly re-negotiate the assumptions that underlie this thing we call "money," we can look forward to increasing "market" disruptions in the years to come. And we don't need a prophet to foresee that.